Within the next years low intensity conflicts will grow around the corridor that goes from somalia, central africa, libya, syria, irak, afghanistan, kashmir, Myanmar, Indonesia and the Philippines, although this areas are already in conflict due to sectarian violence or war, there are two major factor that will have a significant impact regardless of anything else, first the war in syria, this will move fighters back and forth along the corridor and second China economic expansion, this second factor is inevitable as china now has to expand locally unlike before in which t relied on exports, along with china economic expansion there will be immigration and opportunities for every country around china’s economic influence, which will also bring immigration, this two factors will create a mix between the flow of fighters, immigrants, refugees and capital, increasing crime, sectarian violence and low intensity conflicts all along this corridor.
This is inevitable due the historical instability of the area and china growing economy and influence within the region, at the same time this same situation can grow along the countries bordering this region for similar reasons refugees, immigration and historical violence and is from this corridor that the majority of refugees come from, at least in mass.
There are three major groups of refugees those running from conflict, those doing it for socioeconomic reasons and those who are politically persecuted, the first ones will move in large quantities and then immigration will diminish until the conflict is resolved, the second ones will do it at a regular speed over a period of time and the last ones will move in small numbers, so they are not part of this issue, although conflict and socio economic refugees share some characteristics the focus will be on the first ones and eventually, at which point, both connect within a similar solution.
Hotspots and Control Zones
When there is a conflict the first affected will be the border countries, refugees will continue to move is this countries cannot accommodate them due to socioeconomic reasons or violence, so refugee camps will normally grow around this areas eventually moving up to other countries where there are more opportunities, creating a different type of refugee camp and eventually other problems like reintegration.
A solution for this is to reintegrate them as fast as possible within the country they come from, to do this a series of cities can grow along the first response refugee camp, diving the refugees into smaller groups along the border and if needed along the routes taken by them, the objective is to create self sustainable towns that will eventually “colonize” the country they came from, moving the towns within the countries borders safe zones.
To accomplish this once refugees arrive at the first response camps, they should be relocated to another town according to what skills they already have if they don’t they should be trained in the skill needed, the objective is to create a local economy reducing the cost of aid and at the same time giving them work and something to do.
An advantage of this system is that many of this areas are already within the protection of U.N troops, the troops already deployed along with the logistics and everything else required to keep them there can be gradually replaced by the refugees with the added advantage that they are locals, this could also include defensive militia units to help in the creation of safe zones where it is needed.
The refugee camps along the routes will when possible send people back within the chain, according to skills, family members, region, etc, creating an “inverse immigration” and reducing costs for aid and troop deployment, in the conflict zones, when possible they will continue to move back into the country or at the very least grow its local economy back to the country, other camps and the neighboring states.
In conclusion the system is based on a series of refugee/towns going from the conflict zone and the immediate response refugee camp all the way up the countries harboring refugees, it will try to create an inverted immigration, by relocating refugees according to skills or training them depending on necessities, then it will try to create a local economy for this cities, that will eventually trade with their neighbours and create safe zones as militia along U.N troops in the conflict area, recolonizing the country and reducing costs for aid and troop deployment.